Unemployed Vets

From Unemployment for Young Vets: 30%, and Rising:

Dig deeper into the pages of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data and it becomes apparent that while the job market is slowly improving for most Americans, it’s moving in the opposite direction for Gulf War II vets (defined by the BLS as those on active duty since 2001). The youngest of veterans, aged 18 to 24, had a 30.4 percent jobless rate in October, way up from 18.4 percent a year earlier. Non-veterans of the same age improved, to 15.3 percent from 16.9 percent. For some groups, the numbers can look a good deal worse: for black veterans aged 18-24, the unemployment rate is a striking 48 percent.

Via Global Guerrillas:

IF we keep going in this direction, and there's no reason to think we won't, these young men find new groups to care for them and they shift their loyalties to new gangs/mafias/cartels/militias etc. at a pretty amazing clip. Given the danger this shift in primary loyalties represents for the future, going it alone isn't an option. You need a community at your back.

And since community has ceased to exist for many, this situation will not be pretty. Unlike the mid-1990s, post OKC bombing, the government is not quietly employee those with combat skills (as was related to me, when I had business at the Federal Building), but others will be more than happy to do so.

Ideological Crisis

John Robb is absolutely correct that capitalism is facing an ideological crisis similar to that which resulted in the collapse of communism 20 years ago.  Although culturally speaking, capitalism as a means of economic exchange is probably not going anywhere (just as authoritarianism in Russia), it's ideological basis is under assault as confidence in its resultant system erodes.  In addition, governments (to varying degree) have been "hollowed out" by globalism, so there is really nothing left to step up to fill its place.  The only recourse is to switch one's orientation to "primary loyalties" as described by William S. Lind in his past writings.  In the West, much like other parts of the world, the result will be division into smaller entities than the current nation-state arrangement.  The question is how small will it go?

Maximum Advantage: Global Codes of Conduct

On Global Guerrillas, John Robb points out the following:

Globalization has brought about an age when the only tests used to judge anyone's behavior are:

• Does it make you money or its equivalent? The corollary is that the greater the amount of money acquired, the better the behavior is.

• Did you get away with it? This test is merely based on legal enforceability (were you caught in a place that matters) and the degree of punishment (will the punishment negate or exceed the benefit of the behavior). Morality, virtue, ethics, shame, actual legality, etc. aren't considered factors. 

Why is this so? It's the only set of behavioral tests that are globally portable. As in, we can't agree on anything at a global level except the minimal rules needed to interconnect (which is similar to how the Internet and the Web spread).

This is another example of the impact of the Technical Morality, where efficiency becomes the only consideration for guiding human behavior.  It may be explained by "global portability," but that says nothing about why it is considered acceptable in the first place.

The Resilient Community

John Robb: The Resilient Community: Read Here & Here. As Things Fall Apart. The fall back is DIY community. Unfortunately, a sense of community has largely ceased to exist as a reality for those "completely tied to or immersed in the legacy system," as Robb puts it. There's more to community than just houses.

Review of Brave New War #8

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

This book is in general agreement with other 4GW authors. The world is changing back to old mindsets mixed with modern goals and technology. Centralized state control is fading (in general) world wide. Eventually, economic collapse will effectively break governments of power. Robb discusses a future where fortified enclaves develop along collectivist lines. The rich individually and collectively; the middles class collectively. He does not discuss the effects of massive currency collapse on the rich and middle class. It may be inferred that he is basically predicting another Great Depression coupled with a crippled state. Many other 4GW authors go further and view it as a change in the nature of civilization. The reality may prove something in between.

Review of Brave New War #7

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

Large electrical grids and other networks are vulnerable due to the large transmission distances involved. One cannot guard every power or gas line. As a result, as prevention against disruption, power will need to be generated locally, presumably primarily through renewable such as solar (which will become cost competitive within the decade) and wind power (which is competitive now). The national network is too vulnerable, which will provide incentive to localize power generation. The question remains whether or not this development may be forced.

Review of Brave New War #6

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

Guerrilla Entrepreneurs are driven by a range in motivation. Some are mercenary; most are not (as being driven solely to fight for pay). Circumstances dictate the means and methods. Some do not kill. Their targets are physical infrastructure and systems, such as targeting critical nodes and transmission lines. Computer systems may also be threatened. The Guerrilla Entrepreneur is exploiting the weakness of Maximum Advantage. Technical efficiency as final consideration leads towards connectivity thus inevitable spawning many unintended consequences. A primary conflict point occurs along cultural lines. Once a dominant culture succumbs to the lure of Maximum Advantage, it will force itself upon all others via contact vectors. Interestingly (or not), the technical morality meanwhile smothers all the competition by buying it out, then pushing it to the population. As the boundary is reached, the spaces are filled in. The original only occurs one as the bizarre becomes common place. Along lines of popular culture*, this behavior is transmitted in all its decadent glory. Guerrilla Entrepreneurs may also utilize the same media techniques with increasing sophistication. Indeed, being small their propaganda may be altered as necessary in almost real time. A committee does not need to meet and discuss the matter for months to change tact and approach. Psychological warfare is inevitably employed in modern conflicts. Internal battles are no exception.

* I would recommend Tom Frank (in general) and The Baffler crew for those readers interested in bashing the cutting edge.

Review of Brave New War #5

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

Open Source Warfare is a concept that describes warfare like a bazaar. Fighters, bomb makers and others sell their talents by the job to "organic" guerrilla movements, gangs, clans etc. that often make no claim and do no covet the mantle of state. The weak can challenge the strong by buying the services of those willing to do the job. Indeed, even states are using more mercenaries these days, so why would others not do so?

Review of Brave New War #4

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

As the author points out, the War in Iraq is similar to the Spanish Civil War in being an incubator for new types of warfare. In Spain, the bombing of Guernica by three waves of German bombers is cited as an example of experimental warfare. In Iraq, the art of systems disruptions and the small bleeding dry the strong are both examples. However, unlike Spain where the strong learned at the expense of the weak, the opposite is true of Iraq. Technology has advanced both in terms of weapons availability and its ubiquitous presence within complex systems. A modern state may be fought successfully by turning off the lights. Even if the result is a smoking ruin, the weak cannot help prevail.

The weak can always build. In unstable situations, the masses are best kept busy by building infrastructure. Revolt and revolutionary impulses are blunted by employment. Any state forces forgetting this truism, like the US did in Iraq, will find their situation ultimately untenable.

Review of Brave New War #3

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

One of the interesting points the author makes in this book (and has done so repeatedly on his Website) is the similarities of the Spanish Civil War and the War in Iraq. Both conflicts are precursors to even greater wars. In addition, although never alludes both contain contained (truly) revolutionary elements. However, a primary component has changed its nature, namely anarchistic* drivers towards smaller or even no government. In the 1930s, anarchy was embodied by movements and figures; in the 2000s, anarchy is an historical force. Technological civilization is vulnerable in proportion to its size. Decentralization and isolation are a response, including gravitation toward closed collectivism. As infrastructure is divided the result can be harsh if the transition is managed poorly (which is most certain in chaotic circumstance). It becomes only prudent to disconnect from the national grid or road system as autonomy is assumed or wrested. Chaos can be halted. People will need to depend on themselves more. In the US, I suspect the federal government would take a backseat to state and local jurisdictions (some of which will Fall Apart on their Own).

* In the sense, meaning no rulers or government. Chaos is not inherent; just likely.

Review of Brave New War #2

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

The author emphasizes the vulnerabilities of a technological society to the forces of chaos. The state is too slow and unwieldy to adequately defend against those forces that wish to sow disorder and yet have no interest in replacing a government with themselves (as was the case with previous forms of guerrilla warfare). Although some success may be gained by spectacular (and deadly) attacks such as witnessed on 9-11-01, in general, the small and weak are better off overcoming the large and strong by means and methods of systems disruptions. Deadly attacks will provide diminishing returns by hardening resolve and creating new enemies. Also, the response is not universal. A terrorist attack on Italy would not be as effective as one against the US as a smaller state does not possess the resources to massively over-react. (In addition, the perpetrators generally do not live to fight another day.) On the other hand, attacks against infrastructure and other technological systems are relatively easy to plan and implement with little risk to the participants (assuming a certain level of knowledge of those systems). An example cited by the author was an attack on Iraqi infrastructure that cost several thousand dollars to carry out, but resulted in the loss of $500 million in lost oil export revenue. (The cell responsible also escaped unnoticed and unscathed.) Compared to actual combat, it simply does not take much to fight this type of economic warfare.

Review of Brave New War #1

Brave New War by John Robb is packed full of same material and minimalist writing style (I approve) that may be found at his web site Global Guerrillas. Now the meat of the matter is available in one compact book. If you've followed his web writing, his book covers the salient points while avoiding beating his subject to death; for new comers to 4GW concepts, I suspect it adequately conveys both the complexity of physical networks and the relative simplicity involved in disrupted technological systems.

Before I write further concerning my review, a while back William S. Lind reviewed his book Brave New War and made an interesting, if somewhat flawed point:

I think John Robb’s Air Force Background may mislead him to an extent. Air Forces have long believed that the bombing of critical nodes in an enemy’s military, communications or economic systems can win wars; American air raids on German ball-bearing plants in World War II are a famous example. In reality, it seldom works because the enemy’s re-routing, redundancy and repair capabilities enable him to work around the destruction. Robb is right that such destruction can increase costs, but wartime psychology can absorb higher costs. War trumps peacetime balance-sheets.

Although true regarding World War II, a comparison with present day society is stretching things a bit. Disruptions are a major source of stress and lost revenue. If the power is off for a prolonged period of time, as it was for some people in Western Washington late last year, the population gets mean. Everything depends on infrastructure. Sixty+ years has brought many changes including psychological dependence on machines. Selfishness (for want of a better term) is the norm. Decadence does not breed loyalty or enable any kind of wartime psychology. The worst will come out. Although less dependent, Iraq is being crippled by problems with infrastructure. Western countries might collapse as well. The first few times the power is knocked out by Global Guerrillas, the population will curse the perpetrators. After 100 times, the government is blamed and looses legitimacy. Why should I pay taxes if the lights can't even be kept on?

Lind is without doubt responsible for an extraordinary intellectual achievement in identifying 4GW. Rarely are trends identified so quickly by contemporaries, but his grasp of contemporary western culture is limited. As seen in Importing More Fourth Generation War:

The root of the problem, as is usual in Fourth Generation war, is loyalty. As the Times story says, the Kurds, like virtually all refugees from other cultures, are "bound by a common language and ethnicity." Those bonds are stronger than formal American citizenship, and they provide a rich soil in which 4GW can grow. In America 's poisonous popular culture, the necessary seeds are quickly planted among young men by the same rock and rap music, video games and examples from the culturally disintegrated black community that have overwhelmed Hispanics and other immigrants. As always, the cultural Marxists fly cover over the whole diabolical mess, labeling any serious discussion of the problem "racism."

Without addressing particulars, like many (true and probably older) conservatives, he identifies supposed vectors without ever touching on the disease, namely decadence. In fact, I suspect few intuitively understand its affects. Music and video games are a product of the environment. Pop culture is a media commodity. White suburban kids buy most gangsta rap. Cultural Marxists, as identified by William S. Lind numerous times, would have no fertile soil in a non-decadent culture. Pop culture includes conservatives as it does everything else that may be packaged and sold. When civilization declines all boat are lowered with the tide. Some also manage to beach themselves.