The State is Doomed! 8-10

8. i. Only 100 Kalishnakovs are needed to destroy a small state.
ii. Global media and communication is universal.
iii. Ideas can sometimes be more powerful than military might.

9a. Recently, a concept called Asymmetric Warfare or Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) has been in the process of development by forward thinking military officers like William S. Lind. 4GW is fought beyond maximum advantage in all things. States find non-state actors difficult to fight. Their aims are incomprehensible to a bureaucratically conditioned mindset. Their decentralization makes identification and goals difficult to identify or contain. External non-state enemies are even more difficult to penetrate. Technology is mostly useless; billion dollar weapons systems are irrelevant. Organization is not a virtue in asymmetric warfare. In 4GW propaganda victories are the primary objectives. Minimum expense for maximum gain is sought in all things. The opponent's will must be broken. The opponent's economy must be devastated. The opponent must be goaded into stupid atrocities. 4GW does not require state actors. 4GW is low tech. In 4GW, no negotiation is possible because there is nothing to negotiate. In 4GW, the state is the weaker party. 4GW makes the state irrelevant: it's back to the 14th Century. The state cannot fight maximum advantage with maximum advantage. The technological state is capable of no other means. In 4GW, the state is weaker. 4GW is the shadow in war. Asymmetry is a higher maximum advantage. The underdog will always elicit a certain sympathy. In 4GW, the distinction between combatant and civilians is blurred. Long live the memory of Falluja!

9b. Could 5GW be a time of war waged by individuals? If so, we are doomed

10. Excepting totalitarian regimes, legitimacy is a key component of any system of governance. An established arrangement may only deligitimize itself though the actions of disconnected leaders.

On the 4GW FMFM-1A Draft 1: Corruption

On the 4GW FMFM-1A Draft 1: Corruption

William S. Lind: FMFM 1-A, Fourth Generation War, Is Now Available.

I read the 4GW FMFM-1A Draft, posted last week on Defense and the National Interest, and found it interesting and informative. It's nice to see some people still have brains. I appreciate their sense of honor. I'm not sure a decadent society can produce the significant numbers required.

I am obviously not a military type. However, I am someone who has lived in the middle of a few gang wars (as a neutral observer) and seen some of tactics of which they speak, and the police response (or lack thereof). My comments are directed along those lines. I will be intentionally vague about certain details. I know when to shut my mouth in return for a certain kind of freedom.

The theme is about de-escalation. Who needs more enemies?

I will present an excerpt, and then give my notes as a response.

Also Thoughts on FMFM 1-A. First comments, by an anonymous observer. I agreed with much of it. Bureaucracies do not allow discretionary funds. It will lead to corruption (see below and Here.)

Excerpt:

"Its only purpose is to further our understanding of Fourth Generation war in ways that are useful to those Americans who have to fight such wars, including Marines."

What can I say?

Excerpt: "For Marines in Fourth Generation situations, the policeman is a more appropriate model than the soldier. Soldiers are taught that, if they are not achieving the result they want, they should escalate: call in more troops, more firepower, tanks, artillery, aviation, etc. In this respect Marines may find their own training for war against other state armed forces works against them. Marines must realize that in Fourth Generation war, escalation almost always works to the advantage of their opponents. We cannot stress this point too strongly. Marines must develop a "de-escalation mindset," along with supporting tactics and techniques."

About 10 years ago, I witnessed a turf battle by two entirely different gangs over control of a primary crack cocaine sales point. One side were crazy locals; the other was a group of African veterans. Before the party was brought to an end by federal intervention, I saw that corner change hands several times. The locals employed hit-and-run tactics in muscle cars (always driven by women). A kid blown away in the front yard, after trying to rip them off over crack, was tossed in a trunk. They were long gone by the time the police arrived. You can bet the crabs fed well. The opposition ran their operation on foot like a military operation. They would place pickets and use hand signals. They knew how to shoot. The police did not dare bother either, provided nobody had any reason to call. Their patrols were timed. The drug dealers took a break. I never locked my door. The gang members would warn us to get off the street. Except for the inter-gang violence, a kind of order was maintained. Too much money was to be had. Some police had closer working relationships. Quiet can be the result of official corruption. I have seen cops guard their pet crack dealers. Eventually, the two gangs became so violent with each other the feds had to take them out. The less violent remnants quietly drew turf lines that are now rarely violated. Of course, the corruption remains. This type of tactic will lead to corruption.

Excerpt: "De-escalation and proportionality in turn require Marines to be able to empathize with the local people. If they regard the local population with contempt, this contempt will carry over into their actions. Empathy cannot simply be commanded; developing it must be part of Marines' training."

Act decently and you'll probably find others do the same. However, bad apples can ruin the whole barrel (see above.) 4GW forces often fund their activites through drug sales. Corruption is inevitable.

Review of Brave New War #1

Brave New War by John Robb is packed full of same material and minimalist writing style (I approve) that may be found at his web site Global Guerrillas. Now the meat of the matter is available in one compact book. If you've followed his web writing, his book covers the salient points while avoiding beating his subject to death; for new comers to 4GW concepts, I suspect it adequately conveys both the complexity of physical networks and the relative simplicity involved in disrupted technological systems.

Before I write further concerning my review, a while back William S. Lind reviewed his book Brave New War and made an interesting, if somewhat flawed point:

I think John Robb’s Air Force Background may mislead him to an extent. Air Forces have long believed that the bombing of critical nodes in an enemy’s military, communications or economic systems can win wars; American air raids on German ball-bearing plants in World War II are a famous example. In reality, it seldom works because the enemy’s re-routing, redundancy and repair capabilities enable him to work around the destruction. Robb is right that such destruction can increase costs, but wartime psychology can absorb higher costs. War trumps peacetime balance-sheets.

Although true regarding World War II, a comparison with present day society is stretching things a bit. Disruptions are a major source of stress and lost revenue. If the power is off for a prolonged period of time, as it was for some people in Western Washington late last year, the population gets mean. Everything depends on infrastructure. Sixty+ years has brought many changes including psychological dependence on machines. Selfishness (for want of a better term) is the norm. Decadence does not breed loyalty or enable any kind of wartime psychology. The worst will come out. Although less dependent, Iraq is being crippled by problems with infrastructure. Western countries might collapse as well. The first few times the power is knocked out by Global Guerrillas, the population will curse the perpetrators. After 100 times, the government is blamed and looses legitimacy. Why should I pay taxes if the lights can't even be kept on?

Lind is without doubt responsible for an extraordinary intellectual achievement in identifying 4GW. Rarely are trends identified so quickly by contemporaries, but his grasp of contemporary western culture is limited. As seen in Importing More Fourth Generation War:

The root of the problem, as is usual in Fourth Generation war, is loyalty. As the Times story says, the Kurds, like virtually all refugees from other cultures, are "bound by a common language and ethnicity." Those bonds are stronger than formal American citizenship, and they provide a rich soil in which 4GW can grow. In America 's poisonous popular culture, the necessary seeds are quickly planted among young men by the same rock and rap music, video games and examples from the culturally disintegrated black community that have overwhelmed Hispanics and other immigrants. As always, the cultural Marxists fly cover over the whole diabolical mess, labeling any serious discussion of the problem "racism."

Without addressing particulars, like many (true and probably older) conservatives, he identifies supposed vectors without ever touching on the disease, namely decadence. In fact, I suspect few intuitively understand its affects. Music and video games are a product of the environment. Pop culture is a media commodity. White suburban kids buy most gangsta rap. Cultural Marxists, as identified by William S. Lind numerous times, would have no fertile soil in a non-decadent culture. Pop culture includes conservatives as it does everything else that may be packaged and sold. When civilization declines all boat are lowered with the tide. Some also manage to beach themselves.

Review of Brave New War #8

Review of Brave New War by John Robb (Continued).

This book is in general agreement with other 4GW authors. The world is changing back to old mindsets mixed with modern goals and technology. Centralized state control is fading (in general) world wide. Eventually, economic collapse will effectively break governments of power. Robb discusses a future where fortified enclaves develop along collectivist lines. The rich individually and collectively; the middles class collectively. He does not discuss the effects of massive currency collapse on the rich and middle class. It may be inferred that he is basically predicting another Great Depression coupled with a crippled state. Many other 4GW authors go further and view it as a change in the nature of civilization. The reality may prove something in between.

Follow The Path of Least Resistance 6-8

6. On the World:
Americans are idiots, but the rest of the world is no better. Humans are a stupid lot. No people has a monopoly on hubris and idiocy. Due to its enormous power, American folly is amplified above the rest. It is held to a higher standard and delivers the image. Hence, it has further to fall. The world cheering will be defining and we will deserve their scorn. The best time to trample someone is when they are down. Universal application is always a myth.

7. On the Opening of the Floodgates:
As we are beginning to see, Fourth Generation Warfare has the potential for profound impact on media-centric societies. Impacts are magnified far beyond the original scope and altered in significance. Fear is transmitted via cultural disease vectors.

8. On Chaos:
Chaos is both profitable and destabilizing. Media interests can never get enough of it. Even the self-restrained whores, who pass for journalists and editors in the U.S. theses days, cannot suppress or merely parrot the government line for long. Competing media interests from non-western societies will have no qualms about presenting the story in the most unfavorable light to U.S. interests. Al Jazeera and similar satellite news services are new phenomenon watched by hundreds of millions. The Internet is another obvious avenue for information whose implications are obviously not appreciated by the lackwits who populate the District of Columbia. The Vietnamese had nothing like it. Years dragged by before war coverage became critical. Now, it takes months. The U.S. press might not show dead children in Iraq, but you can bet Al Jazeera will. Hence, hatred of the U.S. becomes more widespread throughout a territory spanning half the globe and alienating much of the rest. Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) is effective. Simply blow up a couple of buildings[1] and the rest will follow.
Forays into Afghanistan and Iraq represent the beginning of the end of U.S. Imperial pretensions. Iraq is not Vietnam; it is Lebanon. Afghanistan is Afghanistan. There can be no peace with 4GW forces.
The incompetence of politicians would be amazing if not entirely typical in an Age of Mediocrity. Leadership is a casualty of eroding legitimacy. The only things these so-called leaders can be counted upon is too always whore themselves and never do the right thing in any long term context. They will drive themselves into crushing debt to avoid making realistic choices. Their fantasy land is manufactured by a combination of myth and flawed thinking. They believe their power is absolute. How could any sane person believe a state or system omnipotent?
Sham leaders are products of a media-centric society. In this environment, systemic mechanisms ensure vision will always be lacking in a product; hence, the concept of leaders, at least on any large scale, must be discarded. If something needs doing you will have to do it yourself. The Empire is fading fast or is it? Nobody knows; or cares. How many narcissists can dance on the head of a pin? None. Do nothing. See nothing. Be nothing. Why waste more time on the obvious?

[1] Attacks must be multiple and simultaneous to instill maximum panic and project power. Other than actual victims, which are relatively small, a media-centric society will spread the effect in an effective verbal world.

Propaganda of the Deed

PROPAGANDA OF THE DEEDS AND DON’TS is an interesting post regarding early anarchists attempts at "Propaganda of the Deed," and its implications for anarchism. It also compares and contrasts anarchist terrorism and AL-Qaida. It some regards this comparison is valid, but for others the difference is stark. For instance, anarchists were mainly atheistic, therefore their ideology and self-sacrifices were directed (in many cases naively) for a better world on Earth. They also did not believe in ruling others, unlike those seeking to establish an Islamic Caliphate. Islamic terrorists have earthly aims, but their inspiration is religious and therefore not entirely of this world.  Religion also has far more staying power than ideology, which is more like a flavor of the month in comparison.  Also, strangely enough but obvious when one considers the historical epoch, the anarchists believed in more concrete organizing. therefore they were easier to break.  As a result, I believe that militant Islam will outlast its anarchist counterpart in terms of half-life.  If anarchy (meaning the absence of rulers) ever comes about it will be due to the disintegration of the nation state, and not something brought about by any flavor of anarchism as an ideology.  If Al-Qaida's aims become reality (which I hope not to be the case) it will be due to armed struggle and nothing else.  4GW is not just ideological terrorism.

The Nation State is Irrelevant

When something ceases to have meaning, it becomes irrelevant.  The decline of the nation state is no exception.  (See my earlier posts regarding fourth generation warfare, or 4GW, for more details.)  It has made the national government irrelevant.  Hence, the reason for the Occupy Wall Street movement having no focus on Washington D.C.  (The "other" Washington as it is called here in Washington State.)  The youth understand, even if it is not articulated, that appeals to the government are meaningless.  Leaders are no better than pimps. The lack of a leadership and hence a cohesive message from Occupy Wall is partly due to this reality.  It's hard to know where you're going when the only view is the wreckage from behind.  They know what doesn't work, but yet have not figured out what does.  It all boils down to the final realization that Voting is Worthless.  Obama's betrayal of his youthful followers, who are feeling like Chumps about now, was the final straw.

Regardless of their political slant, including those who do support OWS, most of the older generations just don't seem to get it.  Examples are Here and Here.  (Of course, there are some like John Robb who truly get it.  See also Here.)  They chastise and cajole the OWS participants for not putting pressure on their elected representatives and to vote.  (As if those crooks had anything to offer.  Indeed, even being in the same room is enough to make one feel tainted.)  Some even want OWS participants to run for public office, which is the equivalent of suggesting one become a whore.  All of these things are "so twentieth century,"  and the youth know it.  An entirely new social order is needed, and it is not government socialism or libertarian quackery.  People have to take responsibility for their lives at the local level.  The nation state will do nothing.  OWS, if it has to have meaning, is about forming new primary loyalties.

Also, in case you are interested, my site dedicated to propaganda art is featuring OWS-related art at this time.  Some of it is quite good.  See Here.

Election Year Propaganda Links

Every four years I've noted this theme is taken up by some, probably because the constant election year drone of propaganda stimulates the discussion.

Why are Americans so easy to manipulate?  Ring the bell and they start to drool.

Manipulated America: One Theory of How They Control US.  Control is accepted by legitimacy. The author could benefit by learning about 4GW Theory.

Romney's Rise in Polls vs. Electoral College Map.  Not specifically about propaganda, but it shows how the expectations of entertainment influences votes. We elect the jesters.  The electoral college does mitigate this tendency a little bit.  For example the republicans can pick up 100K votes in Texas, but it does not change anything, because they were going to win Texas anyway.

Winning Hearts and Minds?

The video came to my attention a few years back. It is a US gunship attack video from Afghanistan in 2002 or so. In this type of war, where non-state forces fight state forces, sometimes referred to as 4th Generation Warfare (4GW), it's been said that the moral component of war is the most vital to win. Is so, then this is not the way to do so.

Download Video. (Includes an extra minute at the beginning that was cut to keep the blogger upload below 100 Mb.)

Interlude: Concerning 5GW

A few thoughts, mulled over while reading ZenPundit's post 5GW REVOLUTIONS:

I believe 5GW is warfare waged by individuals or very small groups. The Unibomber and possibly the OKC bombers are examples (assuming no greater network was involved). In making Things Fall Apart, their major role is showing individuals can make a difference in helping to destroy the state. It emboldens those individuals with a serious grudge against their targets. The ruling power elite are very vulnerable to the lone actor. He emerges without warning and strikes. He also creates a state backlash that further helps to erode the legitimacy of the state.

Although, I don't condone such things as mass destructions of innocents[1], I see the success of 4GW and 5GW actors against a mediocre power structure as basically inevitable. Once a lone nut can unleash a plague we are all going to pay.

As an aside, Man Accused of Sabotaging Ariz. Gas Lines illustrates the potential for trouble a disgruntled individual may cause.

[1] The victims of terrorism are not pretty sights. I am acquainted with someone, who was sleeping several block from the OKC bombing, that had her womb blown apart by the concussion of the blast. Thinking it was thunder (Oklahoma's weather really is that bad). she rolled over and went back to sleep. She awoke to a mis-carriage situated in the middle of a medical crisis.

Announcement

Now that Neither the Government Nor the Population 6th Draft has been posted in its entirity, the following topics will be presented in the coming weeks:

Introduction to Maximum Advantage Collection by Travis B.

On This Modern Warrior Archetype

Excerpts from Anarchists in the Spanish Revolution by José Pierats

Discussion of 4GW and the Information Arrow by Greg Wilcox

Afterwards, Neither the Government Nor the Population 7th Draft will then begin.

Leaders Are Poison

Thomas L. Day, a 31 years old Iraq War Veteran, laments in Penn State, my final loss of faith, the fact that no real leaders exist anymore.  I will have to disagree.  There is nothing lamentable about it.  Leaders are poison.  At best, they represent an unnecessary weakness as they allow the mass of humanity to escape their own culpability.  Leaders enable passivity.  In cases of mass movements, leaders may be eliminated and/or co-opted. At worst, a leader is nothing but the scum that floats to the top of a cesspool.  (Penn State is certainly a most disgusting example.)

For any real change to occur, people need to take responsibility for their own lives.  I have recently come across the term "Leader-Full," where everyone is a leader (See Here.)  I admit that I kind of like the term and the theory behind it as it fits nicely with Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) Theory, which involves a decentralization in human affairs as people shift toward primary loyalties as the nation-state decays.  It is also compatible with open source theory as well.  As the nation-state withers, people do not need to swear fealty to little dictators like tribal chieftains, warlords, organized crime bosses etc.  Hierarchies are not necessary.  People can do things for themselves and not for the benefit of a parasitic elite--that is real freedom.  It's hard work, but it seems at least some of the younger generation gets it.

Hezbollah, Radical but Rational

In Hezbollah, Radical but Rational Stratfor analyzes the group's capability and motivation for conducting a terrorist attack in the U.S.:

Hezbollah’s global commercial network transports and sells counterfeit consumer goods and electronics and pirated movies, music and software. In West Africa, the network also deals in “blood diamonds” from places like Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and fences illegally bunkered oil from the Niger Delta. Cells in Asia procure and ship much of the counterfeit material sold elsewhere; nodes in North America deal in smuggled cigarettes, baby formula and counterfeit designer goods, among other things. In the United States, Hezbollah also has been involved in smuggling pseudoephedrine and selling counterfeit Viagra, and it has had a significant role in the production and worldwide propagation of counterfeit currencies. Hezbollah also has a long-standing and well-known presence in the tri-border region of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil, where it earns tens of millions of dollars annually from legal and illegal commercial activities, according to U.S. government estimates.

The Hezbollah business empire also extends into the drug trade. The Bekaa Valley, Lebanon’s central agricultural heartland, is controlled by Hezbollah and serves as a major center for growing poppies and cannabis and for producing heroin from raw materials arriving from places like Afghanistan and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Asia. Indeed, Hezbollah controls a commanding percentage of the estimated $1 billion drug trade flowing out of the Bekaa. Much of the hashish and heroin emanating from there eventually arrives in Europe, where Hezbollah members also are involved in smuggling, car theft and the distribution of counterfeit goods and currency. Hezbollah operatives in the Western Hemisphere work with Latin American drug cartels to traffic cocaine into the lucrative markets of Europe, and there have been reports of Hezbollah members dealing drugs in the United States.

[...]

Hezbollah has a group of operatives capable of undertaking terrorist missions that is larger and better-trained than any group al Qaeda has ever had. Hezbollah (and its Iranian patrons) have also established a solid foothold in the Americas, and they have demonstrated a capability to use their global logistics network to move operatives and conduct attacks should they so choose. This is what U.S. government officials fear, and what the Iranians want them to fear. The threat posed by Hezbollah’s militant apparatus has always been a serious one, and Hezbollah has long had a significant presence inside the United States. The threat it poses today is not some new, growing phenomenon, as some reports in the press would suggest.

But despite Hezbollah’s transnational terrorism capabilities, it has not chosen to exercise them outside of its home region for many years now. This is due in large part to the way Hezbollah has matured as an organization. It is no longer the new, shadowy organization it was in 1983 but a large global organization with an address. Its assets and personnel can be identified and seized or attacked. Hezbollah understands that a serious terrorist attack or series of attacks on U.S. soil could result in the type of American reaction that followed the 9/11 attack and that the organization would likely end up on the receiving end of the type of campaign that the United States launched against al Qaeda (and Lebanon is far easier to strike than Afghanistan). In the past, Hezbollah (and its Iranian patrons) have worked hard to sow ambiguity and hide responsibility for terrorist attacks, but as Hezbollah matured as an organization, such subterfuge became more difficult.

There is also international public opinion to consider. Hezbollah is a political organization seeking political legitimacy, and it is one thing for it to be seen as a victim of Israeli aggression when standing up to Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and quite another to be seen killing innocent civilians on the other side of the globe.

Hezbollah also sees the United States (and the rest of the Western Hemisphere) as a wonderful place to make money through its array of legal and illegal enterprises. If it angered the United States, its business interests in the Western Hemisphere would be severely impacted. Hezbollah could conduct attacks in the United States, but it would pay a terrible price for doing so, and it does not appear that it is willing to pay that price. The Hezbollah leadership may be radical, but it is not irrational. Many of the senior Hezbollah leaders have matured since the group was founded and have become influential politicians and wealthy businessmen. This older cadre tends to be more moderate than some of the younger firebrands in the organization.

So, while Hezbollah has the capability to attack U.S. interests, it does not currently possess the intent to do so. Its terrorist attacks in Lebanon in the 1980s, like the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks and the two attacks against the U.S. Embassy, were intended to drive U.S. influence out of Lebanon, and the attacks largely succeeded. An attack by Hezbollah inside the United States today would result in the return of U.S. attention to, and perhaps even a presence in, Lebanon, something that is clearly not in Hezbollah’s interests.

Then why the recurring rumors of impending Hezbollah terrorist attacks? For several years now, every time there has been talk of a possible attack on Iran there has been a corresponding threat by Iran that it will use its proxy groups in response to such an attack. Iran has also been busy pushing intelligence reports to anybody who will listen, including STRATFOR, that it will activate its militant proxy groups if attacked and, to back up that threat, will periodically send IRGC-QF, MOIS or Hezbollah operatives out to conduct not-so-subtle surveillance of potential targets. (They clearly want to be seen undertaking such activity.)

In many ways, the Hezbollah threat is being played up in order to provide the type of deterrent that mutually assured destruction did during the Cold War. The threats of unleashing Hezbollah terrorist attacks and closing the Strait of Hormuz are the most potent deterrents Iran has to being attacked. Since Iran does not yet possess a nuclear arsenal, these threats are the closest thing it has to a “real nuclear option.” As such, they are threats that Iran will make good on only as a last resort.

So it would appear that the threat of a terrorist attack by Hezbollah is
mostly propaganda, by both the U.S. and Iran (provided the U.S. stays out of Lebanon), than any real wish to do so by the group's leadership.  They could do so, but it would not be worth the price.  Like other international drug dealers, like MS-13 and other 4GW entities, they simply have too much to lose if they chose to stray off the path of their profitable business ventures.